VALUE BET

What is a “Value bet”?

Most simply – this is when you think that the bookmaker has given odd for a team when the winning is worth its risk. For example, you were thinking that the odd for Rome against Atalanta was going to be no more than 1.50 but the bookmaker gives you 1.70. This 0.20 are a “value” for you.

To check if a bet is a “value” you just need to:

-          Calculate the chances for the team beating the other.

-          Find as the highest odd as you can offered by the bookmakers.

-          To multiply the percent of winning by the odd.

-          Every single one result which is over 1.00 is a “value”!!!

First example of “value bet”:

If you are sure that a team has 50% chance to win at home, then you make a bet on it only if the odd is 2.00 or higher. Why is that?

The simple math shows: 50% = 0.50 x 2.00 = 1.00 or “fair value”. Do you remember? We multiply the odd for win by the percent we have given and if it is over 1.00, it is “value”. If it is exactly 1.00, we say it is a “fair value”.

If you play with this “value” strategy, you MUSTN’T bet only because you think that the team will win. In a long term this is WRONG. Bet only if you have calculated that you are going to have a “value”.

Second example of “value bet”:

Let’s accept that you are playing dices. One dice has 6 sides, right? Well, what are the odds to have one side in one throw?

Of course, the chance is 1/6 or 16%. To find your “value” you divide 1 by 16% and you get 6.

In other words, if your bookmaker suggests 6.00 odd, then the bet is a “value” and you can bet. However, the bookmaker gives 5.00… Now what? The odd seems quite big for you, right? But it is NOT a “value” and you mustn’t bet.

Basically, this is what bet on “value” means. Calculating the chances and defining the percents at the soccer is a hard task. Although you should definitely have experience with betting, here are some basic methods which can help you with choosing the game:

Home/Guest factor

You should now that the half of the games ends with a Home victory, one part finishes draw, the rest is a Guest win. This is the truth - the Home Factor means a lot!          

This method includes searching for stats not only from the current season but from the previous ones, as well. If we look at the Premier League statistic for 2004/2005 season, we will see some quite interesting (and useful) facts:

The champions – Chelsea wins 73% of their Home games – 14 of 19.
The last team of the table – Southampton loses only 68% of their away games – 13 of 19.
Only 5 teams from the table have won more than the half of their home games.
The teams at the middle and bottom of the ranking end their games draw more times than lose or win it.

When we see the current form of the home and the guest team, we can predict how the game should end. We look at:

-          The previous games between the two teams.

-          The current form of the home team 7-2-1, this of the away team 1-3-6.

So, what would be the chance the game to end up with a home win or draw, for example?
The answer is?

Home team win = 7 + 6 = 13 of total 20 games = 65%

Draw = 2 + 3 = 5 of total 20 games = 25%

Away team win = 1 + 1 = 2 of total of 20 games = 10%

This way the odds should be – 1.53 – 4.00 – 10.00

Other factors

Of course, this is not so easy. If it was so simple to define the winning chances, than the bookmakers would have been smashed up a long time ago. So, keep reading.

Last games

Other popular method is to look at the last games of a specific team, as well. The idea is that the team which has started to win lately is in a nice mood and has raised their confidence; injured players are back etc. until the losing team suffered from lack of morality and desperately needs a good result.

All we read above is pretty much true but sometimes it contrasts itself, especially when it is about teams from the middle of the table. If a team at the middle is in bad or good form, it is not going to be surprising (at least for me) if at some moment the shape “reversed”.

Injured/Missing players

Injured and missing players also have their reflection on the game. Some players are more significant and important than others and the main thing is that the injuries at the defense give bigger reflection than ones in attack.

I find that the goalkeeper or one of the central defenders missing influences most. If one of them is injured, this is a sign for attention. If the captain is injured, this is a sign that the team probably is not going to have a leader to pull the team up.

Derby games

Other important factor is that whether the game is a derby between local teams. Games between “bloody rivals” are always hard as both teams fiercely want the win. Milan  v Juventus is this kind of derby because you can never be sure what the result is going to be, independently of the teams’ current form.

At this Derby games the Home Factor has a little strange effect. It can make no sense but the away team comes really ambitious to prove themselves at the rival’s home ground and embitter the life of the hundreds of the home fans at the stadium.

Last News

You should inform yourself about the last events happening at both teams. The Home team may have a tough game at Europe or they have travelled long hours for it. The Away team could have played with their B team at the cup match in order to keep their key players fresh for this game.

You can understand that the manager if the team has been sacked earlier at the day, the star at the team could have injured himself or the club could have financial problems.